Chiefs vs. Broncos: Week 7 NFL Picks Thursday Night Football

Kansas City is currently enduring an 0-2 SU and ATS slide and gets a week of preparation in which to solve its own problems.

A large issue for Kansas City is based on offense. The Chiefs are one-dimensional, relying heavily on Patrick Mahomes. Last week, by way of example, the top rusher of KC just gathered eight carries while 35 times threw.

Looking at Mahomes mathematically, he performed less than 60% of his passes in each of his past two matches, although his average of eight yards a week will be down 1.1 YPA out of his year average.

Mahomes really isnt the same since his ankle hurt at KCs loss against Indianapolis. A large source of Mahomes hazard plays occur when things around him broke . By getting less mobile, he loses a lot of the skill.

His lack of mobility is all the more problematic given the status of Kansas Citys offensive line. Its protection unit is beleaguered with no existence of starting left tackle Eric Fisher. As a team, the Chiefs position second-to-last in adjusted sack rate.

Denvers defensive line is trending upwards, Even though KCs offensive lineup trends downwards. Denvers year stats still appear terrible since they signify the beginning of Denvers season . However, the Broncos pass rush was dominant in just two. Most recently, the Broncos amassed seven sacks and 10 quarterback strikes in their shutout defeat of Tennessee.

The huge issue with Kansas City is the fact that the run can not stop. The Chiefs rank in opposing YPC 30th.

Back in Denverthe Chiefs get a run-first opponent that is anchored by whats easily one of the very effective units that are run-blocking as Denver ranks fifth in adjusted line yards. Denver backs are also capable as they are one of the better units in the area and at the level.

Denvers ground game consists in an two-headed monster named Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Lindsay gets a bit more focus in the floor game and he averages 4.7 YPC. Freeman has played an increasing role out of the backfield and he and Lindsay discuss an equal number of targets.

KCs second-biggest difficulty on protection is its own helplessness against the short game. An example comes in its game against Houston. In accordance with stats that were next-gen, 20 of Deshaun Watsons 30 pass completions arrived within five metres of the line of scrimmage.

Bronco receivers are very agile. Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton rank over the 95th percentile in PFFs Skill score, which helps them be reliable targets in the brief passing game of Denver and quickly gain separation.

To put it differently, the Broncos have the staff to keep Mahomes and therefore help keep him. Kansas City, due to its defensive fears, has been among the strongest teams in winning the battle for time of possession.

The outcome is a cycle in which the defense of Kansas City cant stop the run and becoming progressively poorer as the match goes on because its opponent gets to run more plays also to keep tiring from the Chiefs defense.

As visiting street teams tend to have a difficult time on Thursday 22, the spot is not terrible for Kansas City. Denver has to camp while the Chiefs travel on a week. The home team is 13-4 SU on Thursday night.

I believe Denver could win straight-up granted match-up situation and its place Though the NFL odds favor the Chiefs. I will gladly take the free points for an NFL Pick and parlay that using anbeneath because Denvers offense does not have much firepower, will allow a lot of clock run, and will keep KCs offense in check.

Best NFL Pick: Parlay at +301 chances: Denver +3.5 and under 50.5 at Bookmaker

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